Using Trees to Forecast the Weather

 

                                        "Ash before Oak, in for a soak;

                                         Oak before Ash, in for a splash."

 

                                        or so the old foresters' rhyme goes.

 

 

I have been watching the dates when trees come into leaf since we first began planting in 1999.

 

Between 2000 and 2006 there was very little difference between the leafing time of our Ash and Oak trees. However, from 2007 onwards, the Ash trees have been consistently coming into leaf earlier than our oaks, regardless of their positions in the wood.

 

In 2008, the early Ash bud-burst was caught by heavy spring frosts, thus killing offf the newly emerging leaves. The second flush did not occur until after the Oaks had started to come into leaf. This confusing picture caused some commentators to doubt the rhyme.

 

In 2009 the Ash came into leaf a good 3 weeks before the Oak trees. During April, much to the amusement of family and friends, I predicted a wet summer ( my definition of summer being June 21st to September 21st.).

 

This is obviously not a scientific exercise but, then, neither apparently is that of the Met office.

 

The smug arrogance of the meteorological establishment in the United Kingdom leaves me seething with frustration. They assert that their 0-5 day forcasts are the best in the world; if that is so then the rest must be absolute rubbish. I am outdoors all of the time; I check the forecasts assiduously; I am misled endlessly.

 

If they cannot get the short term forecasts right, and they admit that they can't predict seasonal weather patterns, why should I give any credence to their predictions for the next 30 - 50 years? For a better seasonal forecast, I now monitor the NAO on Metcheck.